Australian Survivor 2017 Episode 15 Review: Flipping Coins
The Asaga Civil War continues, Luke finds a giant hermit crab, and Odette flips a coin; it’s time for Tristan Kelly to analyse another action packed episode of Australian Survivor!
Sometimes Survivor just boils down to a simple game of probability. it’s quite rare, but when the numbers fall in a certain way, an enemy from the night before can become a person’s closest ally. It’s yet another reason why this game is so fascinating – the path to victory is constantly evolving. The player who is the best at adapting to their changing circumstances will generally win the game. Episode 15 of Australian Survivor explores the aftermath of the mutiny and acts as a fantastic case study into the topic of Survivor probability. In addition, Luke finds an enormous hermit crab, Locky gets a new nickname, and Odette almost implements Kent’s famous shopkeeper strategy. These are the moments that matter…
Post Mutiny Wash Up
At the wounded Asaga base, the unresolved chaos from Tribal spills around the campfire, leading to a heated night long session of grievance airing between Tara, Luke, Sarah, and Jericho. The editors are keen to highlight the fact that Odette is curled up in bed instead of participating in the discussion – clearly she has learnt nothing from Joan’s elimination in the first episode… Sleeping in Survivor is always a dangerous move! Plus, when the numbers are so small you do not want to be separated from the group for long periods of time. Anyway, Jericho talks about the devastation of his army imploding, Sarah explains that everyone should focus on what’s best for their own game, and Luke and Tara fight about the various accusations that each of them have been throwing around. Luke needs to be extremely careful in how he relates to Tara from this point onwards, as we all know how much she loves to hold a grudge. The conflict between the pair is the best case scenario for Sarah, who can now exploit Tara’s scepticism of Luke to recruit her as a solid ally. So as we enter Round 2 of The Asaga Civil War, it’s Sarah & Tara vs Luke & Jericho with Odette as the swing. The battle lines have been drawn.
“Now I can just swing whatever they thought was going to happen to work my way, and continue on in my web of lies…” – Sarah
At Samatau, Pete is stoked to be home and seeks reassurance from the rest of the tribe that he made the right move. Of course they all put on a thrilled charade, but Henry knows that his position in the game has suffered as a result. With Peter back in the mix, the remnants of AK’s crew one again control the tribe, sending both Henry and Locky a rung or two down the hierarchical ladder.
“It’s a massive curve ball that didn’t curve my way tonight… I need to get back to what I do best and make my moves…” – Henry
I Know What You Did Last Tribal
Back at Asaga, the sinister vibe continues the next morning thanks to a voyeuristic filming style, plenty of machete shots, and some creepy tunes. I’m slightly concerned that we might be about to witness a case of homicide… Poor old Jericho looks like he’s been bashed by a broken heart – all he wanted was a loyal cookie alliance to take into the merge. He has “never felt more lonely in this game” and is resigned to the fact that Asaga will be consumed by Samatau at the merge. Sarah tells Jericho that she had in fact decided against voting for Luke the night before, and that she is keen to move forward with the pair into the next stage of the game. Sarah is adapting to the altered dynamics following Peter’s mutiny by proposing a game plan that can be seen as mutually beneficial to the people she almost betrayed. She is an extremely good player.
Meanwhile, Luke decides to embark on a wild (and ultimately unfruitful) idol hunt, after acknowledging that he has placed a massive target on his own back by “making too much noise.” Top points for self-awareness. Finally in this segment, I’ll give Tara a rare bit of praise for producing the following apt statement about the vibe at Asaga:
“After last night it was like hanging out with family members that you just don’t like, but you’re being told that you have to sit down and have a dinner with them…” – Tara
No one can accuse me of being biased.
Pulling a Swifty
It’s time for a rare Odette confessional/fitness montage – her increased air time this episode has my spider senses tingling. She talks about looking forward to the merge when her individual physical prowess can come to the fore, before outlining her social position in the game as a “free agent”. It’s time to pick a side Odette! As I said yesterday, vague non purposeful swing voters always get the cut. To her credit she is owning her strategy of just voting with the majority in attempt to be perceived as a non threatening number – and so far she’s been successful. Unfortunately though, now that the majority is so small, this strategy actually makes her the biggest threat on the tribe, and puts her at risk of being targeted by a double couple compromise.
Sarah recognises this opportunity and gets to work on setting the plan in motion. She approaches Tara and in a brilliant piece of targeted social gameplay asks her the question: “how do you feel about talking strategy?” It’s such a subtle moment but is one that highlights exactly why Sarah can win this game. She is able to target her approach to each individual based on an accurate read of their personality and behavioural patterns. To keep Tara on side, Sarah knows that she needs to keep strategy talk to a minimum and let her believe that she is at least contributing to, if not dictating the current plan. After Tara points out that Jericho, Luke, and Odette will likely be voting together, Sarah subtly introduces the plan to get the boys on board to vote out Odette, whilst simultaneously working on Odette to vote out Luke as insurance. It’s the perfect plan for the current tribal dynamic.
“The thing about Odette is she’s a very smart person in real life, but she does not get Survivor… She just wants to go with the easy vote, she just wants to make it (to) the next day and that’s it… And I just can’t reason with someone like that…” – Sarah
Other than AK’s old crew plotting to get rid of Henry, there’s really not much going on at Samatau this episode, so we’ll head straight back to Asaga where Luke hunts down the “biggest hermit crab ever”.
Surely not more crab homicide! Sarah continues to rebuild her relationships with Luke and Jericho, pitching the Odette plan as the most sensible course of action for all of their games moving forward. It is so rare to see two duelling players agree to put the past behind them and then actually move forward as a team, but this seems like a unique situation. The numbers have changed so they now need each other – all that stands in the way is trust.
“A-Game to the A-Frame”
Peter strides towards the challenge arena holding the Samatau flag, before Henry does a great job of lying about how happy he is to have him back. Jono then introduces what will prove to be the final team immunity challenge for the season. It’s another fantastic endurance battle in which players must hang on to a rope to remain standing on the side of an A-frame. The last player to fall into the water wins immunity for their tribe. Much to Jono’s amusement, the strong fellas struggle from the outset, inspiring him to give Locky a new nickname of “The Big Dog” and to accuse Luke of “doing a river dance.” In the end it comes down to an epic duel between Jericho for Asaga and Ziggy for Samatau. Jericho is motivated to win by his true belief in the ‘divided’ Asaga tribe, whereas powerhouse Ziggy just wants to compete. After over two hours, Ziggy once again proves that she’s unbeatable, sending Asaga back to the slaughter, and increasing the target on her own back as a major threat post merge.
A Mathematical Equation
There are really only two strategic equations for Asaga to choose from tonight:
1. (Sarah + Tara) ÷ (Luke + Jericho) = Odette decides if Luke or Sarah goes home.
OR
2. (Sarah + Tara) x (Luke + Jericho) = Odette goes home.
With so much of their strategic motivations out in the open, for Luke and Sarah this situation is probably the simplest case of Survivor probability that they will ever encounter… Option one basically provides each of them with a 50% chance of going home, whereas option two ensures their safety. The first equation would only be the appropriate choice if either Luke or Sarah were certain that Odette was voting with them, and that she was vital to their respective game plans post merge. When the numbers are stacked so heavily against Asaga, it makes so much more sense to enter the merge as a unified foursome rather than a trio plus one. Further strengthening the case to get rid of Odette is the fact that she spends the whole afternoon sun baking on her own (and not in a Kent-shopkeeper-strategy-way) before announcing to the entire tribe that she might just base her decision on the toss of a coin… Odette my friend, you have just ordered your own execution. It’s unconscionable!
A Tribe Divided?
Jericho talks about putting on a front to Samatu at the challenge to make them think that Asaga are fatally divided – it turns out they all became best friends again during the post-mutiny-campfire-therapy session… Odette looks a bit confused, but that’s because she was too busy sleeping at the time… Never, ever, go to sleep in Survivor! Jericho then continues the love-fest by uttering a few more kind words, in turn pushing Luke to the brink of tears:
“34 days with these guys – I’d do everything for them… And that’s why at the challenge today they were my strength…” – Jericho
The remaining discussion centres around post merge strategy, and the various attributes that make a player desirable or not to take into the next stage of the game. Sarah stresses the importance of trust, Odette and Jericho talk about the value of shields, Tara is suspiciously cheerful and pleasant, and Luke acknowledges the huge target that he has on his back before coming out with the following piece of gold:
“The real games begin come merge.. It’s like having to start again out here, but everyone’s got experience now…” – Luke
Odette commits one final sin by saying that she doesn’t think it will be her tonight, before writing down Sarah’s name and getting sent home in a 4-1 vote. The dysfunctional family of four has found a way to work together, and if history is anything to go by, this minority will have a huge impact on the remainder of the game. Odette played a game that was true to herself but one that was always going to struggle against this group of players. Sarah for the win!
What are your thoughts on tonight’s episode? Join the discussion in the comments below, or chat with us on Facebook and Twitter… Next week it’s finally merge time! Can’t wait to see what tricks these players can produce as the end game approaches!
Make sure you check out the progress of our Australian Survivor Power Rankings battle against Season 1 veteran Conner Bethune and don’t forget to follow Jeremy Gorniak’s live twitter feed during every episode @TTHSau.
If you missed any of the action from Sunday’s episode, you can catch up by reading my Review of Episode 14: Here We Go Again. See you later in the week for more Survivor analysis, power rankings, and general strategic banter!
Tristan Kelly is a 28 year old ex-doctor turned writer, based in Perth, Western Australia. During his final year of medical school he famously watched and analysed every available episode of Survivor (all 368 of them at the time), probably making him more qualified as a Survivor commentator than he ever was a doctor. In between writing and editing short films, he now spends most of his time organising various schemes, and fantasising about one day winning the game.