Survivor Ghost Island: The Half Time Show
Only 10 castaways remain and the end game is nigh; grab yourself a beer and get ready for the Survivor Ghost Island half time show!
Survivor Ghost Island is the season that keeps on giving! Since the merge we’ve been spoiled by a tremendous run of episodes featuring entertaining showdowns, idol failures, idol successes and dramatic meltdowns. What a treat it was to see Michael save himself with Ozzy’s infamous f-ing stick idol – just one episode after Chris was sent home with JT’s cursed idol in his pocket! The Survivor Gods are certainly smiling down on Jeff’s latest creation… At least half of the remaining players are still in it with a shot to win the title of Sole Survivor, and with three idols currently in play, the scene is set for a scintillating run to the finals. The game is about to enter hyperdrive thanks to an upcoming double torch snuffing, so today seems like the perfect opportunity to examine the current state of play, and make yet another set of predictions. For the record, seven of our top eleven preseason picks are still alive in the game, with the only overachievers being Angela, Domenick and Jenna. Not too shabby at all. Anyway, the time has come to sit back, relax, and enjoy the half time show!
The Current State of Play
As the game continues to heat up, a fascinating web of alliances is starting to develop. On the most simplistic level OG Naviti hold a 6-4 advantage over OG Malolo. However, the most solid alliance now seems to be the secret double couple foursome consisting of Donathan and Laurel, and Wendell and Domenick. Further strengthening this power quad’s hold on the game is the fact that they now have three idols in their possession – although Donathan’s is currently unbeknown to Wendell and Domenick.
The third battle in play is essentially a wrestle for power between Domenick and Kellyn… Domenick has indicated that he wants to got the the end with a mixed bag of major players (colour coded black), whilst Kellyn would seemingly prefer to move forward with her purple army of goats. And this is where the next move gets complicated! Assuming the double couple decides to move forward together (which seems to make sense at this point), there are a number of potential outcomes depending on which player is able to steer the ship in their favoured direction. So, I’m going to try to break down the most probable options based on what makes sense for each of the major players…
- Donathan and Laurel steer the ship… The pair continues to keep their options open between OG Malolo and Dom/Wendell by voting out Chelsea and Angela, followed by Sea Bass and Kellyn. Although Michael is a huge threat, they need to keep him around to safe guard against Kellyn’s army of goats. Likewise they can’t really target Kellyn yet due to the risk of severing ties with Domenick. This is one of the many reasons it makes sense for the strongest six players in the game to move forward together – they can all protect each other whilst jostling into position for a massive final 6 showdown. In this scenario it’s imperative that Angela is voted out soon so she doesn’t have the opportunity to become a nightmarish swing vote at the Final 7.
- Domenick and Wendell steer the ship… Similar to above, except Jenna and Angela would be targeted first in order to placate Kellyn, followed by Chelsea and Sea Bass – these boys can’t afford to have goats in the game.
- Kellyn steers the ship… She gets rid of an orange threat in Michael and then scoops up Jenna and her purple goats to oust one of the double couple – most likely Laurel. If Kellyn is allowed to control the next vote or two I wouldn’t be surprised if she storms home for the win. Everyone needs to be on high alert!
- Michael gets a hand on the wheel… Basically he follows along with option number one, but on the side makes a final four deal with Kellyn involving the fire making challenge and agrees to later take out the remaining Malolos. He can argue that she could easily take him out at any point but her chances of making it to the end will be higher if he’s still around as a shield at the Final 6 showdown.
So in summary, after all of that rambling, I think that the goats are in trouble. There are too many good players left in the game to allow the likes of Chelsea, Angela and Sea Bass to impact the makeup of the finale. The big six players (Domenick, Wendell, Laurel, Donathan, Michael and Kellyn) need to trust in their ability to beat each other at the end and gear up for a massive Final Six showdown. It’s the perfect balance between a safe move and a #bigmove, and would produce a fitting end to this magnificent season. Come on Survivor Gods, make it happen!
Winners, Smokies & Goats
Likely Winners: Strong players who have been given a primary character arc.
Smokies: Dangerous players who are slowly working their way into the limelight.
Goats: Passive players who could only beat each other.
The Fallen Comrades
GONZALEZ
Preseason Prediction: 12th
Final Position: 20th
The Move: A unanimous vote led by Donathan and Stephanie J.
The Mistake: Being slightly overzealous in the first immunity challenge, and missing a key group discussion before tribal.
The Return: Unless Jeff ever calls for a season of first boot veterans, Gonzalez’s chances of playing again seem unfortunately slim. In saying that I think she has plenty more to offer, so you never know!
JACOB
Preseason Prediction: 16th
Final Position: 19th
The Move: Milked by Steph for knowledge before a 5-2-1 idol insurance split.
The Mistake: Freaking out from the bounce – searching for idols instead of forming genuine relationships.
The Return: Highly unlikely.
MORGAN
Preseason Prediction: 14th
Final Position: 18th
The Move: Blindsided 4-3-1 by the Malolo Four.
The Mistake: Other than placing a little bit too much trust in Libby, Morgan didn’t really do a whole lot wrong… She just landed in an unfortunate position.
The Return: Could be a chance in a season made up of blindside victims.
BRENDAN
Preseason Prediction: 1st
Final Position: 17th
The Move: Outnumbered 5-4 in a post swap showdown against Bradley.
The Mistake: Potentially could have worked harder at tribal to convince Michael to play the idol in his name instead of Stephanie’s, but ultimately Brendan was just dealt an unlucky hand.
The Return: Expect to see him again in a ‘second chance’ season.
STEPHANIE J
Preseason Prediction: 19th
Final Position: 16th
The Move: A unanimous 7-1 vote led by the Naviti Five with some help from Jenna and Michael who had entered self preservation mode.
The Mistake: Drawing the white rock to be exiled on Ghost Island, and not managing to find a new idol. Extremely unlucky.
The Return: Almost guaranteed.
JAMES
Preseason Prediction: 8th
Final Position: 15th
The Move: A unanimous 4-1 vote at the newly formed Malolo tribe (Kellyn, Des & Angela + Michael entering self preservation mode).
The Mistake: An unlucky tribe swap that left his fate in the hands of Angela.
The Return: James showed enormous potential as a master strategist and likeable character, so he’s not without a chance of getting a second call back.
BRADLEY
Preseason Prediction: 17th
Final Position: 14th
The Move: Blindsided 4-1 at the new Naviti By Domenick and Chelsea with the help of Donathan and Libby.
The Mistake: Being perceived as the leader of the purple power majority and coming across as an annoying and arrogant character.
The Return: Bradley played his role as the unlikable villain this season, but not well enough to be called back for a sequel.
CHRIS
Preseason Prediction: 20th
Final Position: 13th
The Move: Blindsided at his first tribal council 10-2-NV (no vote) with an idol in his pocket.
The Mistake: Not playing JT’s cursed idol.
The Return: Chris co-wrote the narrative of the pre-merge game and became a likeable enigma. I would happily watch him play again – he has the makings of a Brad Culpepper 2.0.
LIBBY
Preseason Prediction: 7th
Final Position: 12th
The Move: Sacrificed in a 4-1-0 vote thanks to Michael nullifying 7 votes with his f*ing stick idol.
The Mistake: Falling for Naviti’s split vote trap and not grabbing Jenna to side with Michael in order to blindside Wendell.
The Return: Libby showed glimpses of promise but probably not enough to receive a second chance any time soon.
DESIREE
Preseason Prediction: 3rd
Final Position: 11th
The Move: A Domenick led 8-2-NV goat cull.
The Mistake: Blowing up after her plan to oust Kellyn was exposed – sold down the river by Laurel.
The Return: Desiree is in a similar position to Libby but with the advantage of being a slightly more dramatic character. She could potentially get a call back one day, but is currently behind a lot of other players in the queue.
Three Wishes for the Third Quarter
1. The strong players eliminate the goats and go to the end together Heroes Vs Villains style.
2. A multi idol show down which ends with Michael somehow coming out on top without one.
3. Just more of the same really – this season has been hard to fault!
Jeff is laughing all the way to the bank, the beginning of the end has arrived, and until next time, the tribe has spoken!
Previously/Next Time on TTHS:
Next up, we’ll be presenting our Week 10 edition of The Boot List!
Check back soon for an updated report card on every player’s game to date, along with our predicted rankings from most deserving winner to next boot.
In the meantime, you can join the discussion below or chat with us on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.
Survivor Ghost Island continues in Australia on 9Go @ 8:30pm
Thursday May 3 (available for streaming on 9now from 3pm).
Tristan Kelly is a 29 year old ex-doctor turned writer, based in Perth, Western Australia. During his final year of medical school he famously watched and analysed every available episode of Survivor (all 368 of them at the time), probably making him more qualified as a Survivor commentator than he ever was a doctor. In between writing and editing, he now spends most of his time organising various schemes and fantasising about one day winning the game.