Survivor Ghost Island: The Quarter Time Break
As the first quarter of Survivor Ghost Island draws to a close, Tristan Kelly discusses the fallen and evaluates the current state of the game.
The opening five hour stanza of Survivor: Ghost Island has impressed on multiple levels, setting the scene for what appears to be a beautifully nuanced edition of the world’s greatest game. The predominant casting choice of super fans coupled with the key thematic question of ‘can you reverse the curse?’ seems to have raised the stakes of the game far beyond those of a standard all newcomer season. The two most recent eliminations in particular have showcased the brutal reality of chasing a Survivor dream…
After applying to be on the show for almost two decades each, Brendan and Stephanie were both playing admirable games until they were cruely derailed by a shoddy run of cards. As is the case with most good games, luck plays a pivotal role in the outcome of Survivor. To take solace in their defeats, the rich characterisation of the pair in the first few episodes has set up a likely return visit for both them in the future. Playing to win and going home early is a more profitable long term strategy in Survivor than coasting along as part of a majority alliance and being ousted in fifth place.
A highlight of the season to date has certainly been the mini Survivor history lessons that have accompanied each uncovered ‘haunted relic’. Not only do these tales provide a generous nod to long term fans, but they also offer newcomers an insight into the rich tapestry of folklore that the show has developed over its 18 year run. To see Michael (a player who was a baby when the show began) utilise the history of James’ unplayed idol from 10 years ago in an attempt to bluff his way further in the game, sent tingles down the spine. If he had guessed correctly and played the idol for Brendan, the move may well have ranked up there with some of the best of all time. Alas, Survivor superstition is a powerful force, and at this point in the game the curse of each returning relic prevails.
Despite the many positive flow on effects of the Ghost Island concept, the actual island itself has been a minor letdown to this point… Just let the boys and girls play Jeff! The set design is spectacular, and the opportunity to dive into the exiled characters’ personal backstories is much appreciated. However, with only two out of the five players sent there so far being given the opportunity to gamble their vote for an advantage, it feels as though the viewer is being somewhat robbed of action.
The management of intra game advantages is a highly complex issue for producers as they need to offer them in a fair and non saturating manner, but in a season such as this, it feels as though the more that are in play, the better. The worst/best case scenario for the show-runners is a repeat of the Game Changers Final Six… Cirie being eliminated without a vote to her name certainly made for enthralling viewing.
Given that the structure of the Ghost Island game has been predetermined within the line of breakable urns, when a player like Kellyn decides not to play, it will also be interesting to see if the unclaimed advantage is then relocated to a hiding spot on the main beach. Fingers crossed!
In summary, the first quarter of Survivor: Ghost Island has introduced an enthralling cast of multi-dimensional players, a strong thematic premise, and the makings of a highly advanced strategical game. At this point in Season 35 there was little to latch onto as a viewer, but Ghost Island feels different. The stakes are higher and the storytelling is more captivating; Jeff is certainly entitled to feel proud of his product!
So, in preparation for the second quarter of the game, it now seems fitting to discuss the current state of play, including an analysis of the primary alliances, the top hopes, and the fallen comrades, along with a few wishes for the next phase. Enjoy!
The Current State of Play:
Once again, Jeff is getting ready to switch things up! Will the players be reshuffled into three tribes of five, two tribes of seven (plus a loner on Ghost Island), or one mega group of fifteen? The way in which the cards fall will drastically affect the trajectory of the second quarter, which makes it virtually impossible to accurately predict the next move. However, with a bit of creativity, we can still tease out a couple of potential scenarios by examining the current state of alliances within each tribe.
Naviti 2.0
It’s a bit of a shame that this group was never summoned back to tribal after the Morgan blindside… The Chris V Domenick duel has created a fascinating web of alliances that for the most part remains untested. Laurel is emerging as the key player of the group – armed with the knowledge of Domenick’s idol, she seems well positioned to make a big move when the time is right. Her biggest obstacle however, may be her closest ally Donathan, who has recently been chumming it up with Chris. Depending on how the numbers fall, he could potentially sell her out to the other Malolos as a scheming defector. Laurel’s emotional management of him will be key to her long term success.
Chris will be hoping for a reunion with his best bro Sea Bass (which may now come with a couple of extra orange allies), whilst Angela continues to be largely irrelevant. It will be interesting to see which of the original purples are keen to reintegrate with one another… In theory OG Naviti enter the next stage with a 9-6 advantage over OG Malolo – however, as the above diagram suggests, tribal lines are beginning to blur and the only old school warriors left are the five purples on Malolo 2.0. The only thing I can say with any confidence about the above group is that Angela will not be winning this game!
Malolo 2.0
Kellyn’s “epic” plan to wipe out the original Malolo’s one by one has been in full swing since the last tribe swap, so Michael and Jenna will be licking their lips at the prospect of a second reshuffle. If they happen to be reunited with any of the Malolo Four, they have potential connections to every player on the other side. So provided they don’t end up on a tribe of five with Bradley, Kellyn and Des, they should now be well placed to make it through to the final merge. Plus, they’ll be able to warn everyone else about the impenetrable stranglehold the purple five have had on the game to date.
The problem with Bradley and Kellyn’s unsociable early game wipe out strategy, is that they’ve now alienated two surviving numbers pre merge that they may need to call upon in order to obtain a new majority. It’s hard to envisage a scenario in which Michael and Jenna would be willing to work with their leading oppressors over their original orange friends… Which is why Sebastian’s recent move to entertain Jenna was such a sensible one. When swaps are still possible it pays to keep the door open for those on the bottom – the fisherman now has options all over the place. Meanwhile, Chelsea is firming as the goat of the season… To be given such little coverage across five hours of Survivor programming means she must be doing next to nothing out there. Playing it safe within a large majority rarely reaps success.
A Tentative Game of Fives
Winning Prospects:
The Second Tier:
Not Looking Great:
*With so many variables in play, the game is extremely wide open at this point!
The Fallen Comrades:
GONZALEZ
Preseason Prediction: 12th
Final Position: 20th
The Move: A unanimous vote led by Donathan and Stephanie J.
The Mistake: Being slightly overzealous in the first immunity challenge, and missing a key group discussion before tribal.
The Return: Unless Jeff ever calls for a season of first boot veterans, Gonzalez’s chances of playing again seem unfortunately slim. In saying that I think she has plenty more to offer, so you never know!
JACOB
Preseason Prediction: 16th
Final Position: 19th
The Move: Milked by Steph for knowledge before a 5-2-1 idol insurance split.
The Mistake: Freaking out from the bounce – searching for idols instead of forming genuine relationships.
The Return: Highly unlikely.
MORGAN
Preseason Prediction: 14th
Final Position: 18th
The Move: Blindsided 4-3-1 by the Malolo Four.
The Mistake: Other than placing a little bit too much trust in Libby, Morgan didn’t really do a whole lot wrong… She just landed in an unfortunate position.
The Return: Could be a chance in a season made up of blindside victims.
BRENDAN
Preseason Prediction: 1st
Final Position: 17th
The Move: Outnumbered 5-4 in a post swap showdown against Bradley.
The Mistake: Potentially could have worked harder at tribal to convince Michael to play the idol in his name instead of Stephanie’s, but ultimately Brendan was just dealt an unlucky hand.
The Return: Expect to see him again in a ‘second chance’ season.
STEPHANIE J
Preseason Prediction: 19th
Final Position: 16th
The Move: A unanimous 7-1 vote led by the Naviti Five with some help from Jenna and Michael who had entered self preservation mode.
The Mistake: Drawing the white rock to be exiled on Ghost Island, and not managing to find a new idol. Extremely unlucky.
The Return: Almost guaranteed.
Three Wishes for the Second Quarter:
1. More chances to play on Ghost Island… Because gambling votes is fun and who doesn’t appreciate a haunted Survivor relic history lesson?
2. The Domenick V Chris duel finally comes to a head… Or the rivals somehow find a way to put their differences aside to team up together and take down the Purple Five.
3. The return of Jeff’s creepy ‘do you waaaanna know what you’re plaaaaying for?’ voice from last season. It was a great touch!
And with that glorious expression, the tribe has indeed spoken. Bring on the second quarter!
Previously/Next Time on TTHS:
Next up, we’ll be presenting our Week 5 edition of The Boot List!
Check back soon for an updated report card on every player’s game to date, along with our predicted rankings from most deserving winner to next boot.
In the meantime, you can join the discussion below or chat with us on Facebook, Twitter, or Instagram.
Survivor Ghost Island continues in Australia on 9Go @ 8:30pm Thursday March 29 (available for streaming on 9now from 3pm).
Tristan Kelly is a 29 year old ex-doctor turned writer, based in Perth, Western Australia. During his final year of medical school he famously watched and analysed every available episode of Survivor (all 368 of them at the time), probably making him more qualified as a Survivor commentator than he ever was a doctor. In between writing and editing, he now spends most of his time organising various schemes and fantasising about one day winning the game.